1-1 is a good score line for Barça, though the draw has left a bittersweet taste in the mouth. The team could have come back from the Bernabéu with a win and inclined the tie even more in Barça’s favour. Nevertheless, an away 1-1 draw is usually a guarantee of success in the second leg: Barça has qualified for the next round on six of the eight occasions when the Club has drawn 1-1 away from home in the first leg of a Spanish Cup tie.
A year ago
We only have to look back to last year to find the first example. In the semifinals, Barça drew 1-1 away to Valencia and went on to clinch the tie with a 2-0 win in the Camp Nou. In the 2007/08 season, a goalless draw in the second leg away to Sevilla was enough to see Barça through to the quarterfinals.
Defeat in the only precedent against Real Madrid
However, there’s no room for complacency. A 1-1 draw in the 1992/93 season – a semi-final first leg in the Bernabéu – was followed by a 2-1 victory for Real Madrid in the Camp Nou. The same happened against Celta in the 1977/78 season. These are the only two occasions when Barça hasn’t gone through to the next round of the Cup after drawing 1-1 in the first leg.
50:50 for Real Madrid
Strangely enough, Real Madrid has also draw 1-1 eight times at home in a Cup tie first leg. The final outcome of these ties is split evenly 50:50 – four times eliminated and four times successfully through. On the last three occasions Real Madrid has been eliminated from the Cup after drawing 1-1 at home in the first leg.
Slightly better record for Barça
Putting aside the Cup for one moment, recent contests in all competitions against Real Madrid in the Camp Nou show that neither side can be considered a clear favourite, though Barça has a slightly better record. Since the 2008/09 season, a repeat of any one of five score lines would see Barça through to the Final (2-0 in 2008/09, 1-0 in 09/10, 5-0 in 10/11, all in league matches, and 3-2 in the 2011/12 and 2012/13 Super Cups), two would favour Real Madrid (1-2 in the league in 11/12 and 2-2 in the Cup in 11/12) while one result would take the tie to extra time (1-1 in the Champions League 2010/11).